The Yangtze River Delta is expanding, while the Greater Bay Area is contracting, which is an unusual signal
The Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta are two of the world's top city clusters and also the most economically dynamic regions in China.
Recently, an unexpected scene occurred:
The "China Big City Strong City Index (2nd Edition) Report" jointly compiled by the Shenzhen Industry Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and the China Development Research Institute shows that,
The economic performance of the Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta is difficult to distinguish, but there has been a huge divergence - the Yangtze River Delta has won completely.
59 cities across the country have been shortlisted as "strong cities", with the Yangtze River Delta accounting for 19 of them, a proportion of 32.2%, while only 5 cities in the Pearl River Delta have been shortlisted.
At the same time, there is heavy news from Guangdong that the "Golden Inner Bay" concept plan has issued an invitation to the world and is about to emerge, leading the way
"Integrated high-quality development around the Pearl River Estuary"
.
Comparing the two news pieces, it is quite intriguing.
Why is the Yangtze River Delta desperately expanding while the Greater Bay Area shows a clear sense of contraction? The signal behind is unusual.
The "China Big City Strong City Index (2nd Edition) Report" integrates ten indicators including labor productivity, land productivity, and capital productivity, providing a "window" for observing the quality of urban economic development.
Looking at the final list of 59 cities, one can intuitively feel that:
The Yangtze River Delta has won completely, and has "won" twice.
In terms of quantity, the Yangtze River Delta presents a crushing trend, with 19 cities shortlisted as strong cities. Only five cities in the Pearl River Delta, namely Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, and Huizhou, were selected, which is not as many as the six cities in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration.
Moreover, the ranking of "strong cities" in the Yangtze River Delta is often higher than that of GDP: Hangzhou ranks 8th in GDP and 4th in strong cities; Nanjing ranks 10th in GDP and 6th in Strong City; Ningbo ranks 12th in GDP and 9th in Strong City; Wuxi ranks 14th in GDP and 10th in Qiangcheng.
The ranking of strong cities in the Pearl River Delta is basically consistent with the GDP ranking, which appears less impressive.
Does this mean that the Yangtze River Delta has fully taken the lead over the Pearl River Delta? Actually, it cannot be simply understood. In fact, this precisely confirms the judgment that Zhigu Trend has always made:
The Yangtze River Delta is becoming more and more like a 'province', while the Greater Bay Area is becoming more and more like a 'city'.
After all, the Yangtze River Delta covers an area of 358000 square kilometers, while the Greater Bay Area covers an area of 55900 square kilometers, which is less than a fraction of the Yangtze River Delta. The Greater Bay Area does not have an advantage in terms of area and quantity.
But behind the huge gap, it is actually due to the Yangtze River Delta
Always desperately expanding:
In 1982, when the predecessor of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, Shanghai Economic Zone, was established, its members were only 9 cities including Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nantong, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, and Ningbo;
In 1997, the first Yangtze River Delta Urban Economic Coordination Conference added Zhoushan, Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, and Taizhou as participating cities;
In 2003, Taizhou joined the Yangtze River Delta Urban Economic Coordination Committee;
In 2009, Anhui attended the Symposium of Major Leaders of the Yangtze River Delta Region and the Joint Conference on Cooperation and Development in the Yangtze River Delta Region as an official member;
On December 1, 2019, the "Outline of the Development Plan for Regional Integration of the Yangtze River Delta" clarified that the scope of the Yangtze River Delta includes the entire area of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces and one city, totaling 41 cities.
Expanding from 9 cities to 41 cities, it has increased by 3.5 times.
In fact, the Greater Bay Area has also experienced expansion in the past. Can you believe it? When the Pearl River Delta was at its largest, it once included 9 provinces and 2 special administrative regions, which is the concept of "Pan Pearl River Delta" proposed by the country in 2003. It includes 9 provinces including Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hainan, Hunan, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.
However, nowadays the Greater Bay Area is becoming more and more "united", and while carrying out extensive cooperation, it is beginning to vigorously "shrink".
In the report of the 13th Party Congress of Guangdong Province, the concept of "Golden Inner Bay" was officially proposed.
The so-called "Golden Inner Bay" is a 100 km area around the mouth of the Pearl River, which gathers the four trillion core cities of Guangdong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan, covering the Qianhai Cooperation Zone, Nansha New Area, Binhai Bay New Area, Cuiheng New Area, Hengqin Free Trade Zone and other national or provincial new areas. It can be called the essence of the Great Bay Area.
Why did the Yangtze River Delta expand and the Greater Bay Area shrink, choosing completely different paths?
One important influencing factor is economic density. Cities cannot expand indefinitely. The higher the economic density of a city, the stronger its population attractiveness and carrying capacity.
In fact, the economic density of the Pearl River Delta is significantly higher than that of the Yangtze River Delta.
Only Shanghai and Suzhou, with an area of 14800 square kilometers. However, the total area of "Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen" is only 11900 square kilometers, in terms of space
It is much tighter and finer than the twin cities of Shanghai and Suzhou.
Chen Xian, the chief expert of the research group of the "China Big City Strong City Index (2nd edition) Report", pointed out that：
The higher the economic density, the greater the leverage of infrastructure such as transportation on the economy. If the Shenzhen Zhongshan Channel is located in the Yangtze River Delta, its leverage effect may not be as significant.
The earliest city in the world to taste the sweetness of "density" was Portland, USA. As early as 1973, Portland formulated the Urban Development Boundaries (UGB) regulations. At that time, most cities in the United States advocated for outward expansion, but Portland was "going against the tide". In 1997, Portland released the "Regional Plan 2040" to further inherit and develop UGB, proposing the concept of "smart growth".
The effect of 'smart growth' is significant, with Portland's population increasing by 50% while its land area only growing by 2%.
As a second tier city, Portland has successfully seized business from New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles due to its high density and the wave of high-tech companies returning to the city center, attracting leading companies such as Intel, TSMC, and HP to settle in.
Unlike the Yangtze River Delta plain, which is flat on one side,
Due to the terrain limitation, the Great Bay Area is equivalent to being "framed" by the boundary. It can only continuously increase its density in the core area around the Pearl River estuary, but it has forced out the road of "smart growth" and endogenous development.
Lu Ming, a distinguished professor at the Antai School of Economics and Management at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Executive Dean of the China Development Research Institute
In the book 'City of Innovation: Who is Leading the Era of Strong Cities', it is bluntly stated that:
The population size and density provide a natural breeding ground for innovation. A large number of high-quality talents and enterprises gather to form a strong industrial cluster.
For example, the drone industry in Shenzhen is a typical case of industrial agglomeration effect. From fishing rod materials to badminton racket materials, and then to drone manufacturing, Shenzhen's exploration of new materials such as carbon fiber precisely demonstrates the cumulative nature of innovation.
This accumulation not only drives technological progress, but also enhances the overall innovation capability of the city.
For example, in recent years, Shenzhen has vigorously promoted the "Industrial Upstairs" initiative, which involves relocating lighter and less vibrating production equipment to high-rise buildings to achieve three-dimensional development. This trend of increasing "economic density" is most active in cities such as Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Zhuhai in the Greater Bay Area.
In fact, "industry returning to urban areas" has become a trend in advanced cities abroad, driven by the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries.
With the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, corresponding industry workers have already changed their appearance, many of whom are senior technicians or even engineers, with higher requirements for the quality of life and urban supporting facilities.
In the United States, Portland's "Silicon Forest" and New York's "Silicon Alley" are gradually on par with "Silicon Valley", one of the reasons being that high-tech talents are more eager for a rich urban life rather than monotonous industrial parks.
In addition,
The third space for eating, drinking, and entertainment is itself a place that inspires innovation.
In Dongguan, due to industrial agglomeration, large factories and small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply chain live adjacent to each other. If you encounter problems in R&D, you can consult with engineers from a neighboring large factory. Let's schedule a coffee meeting, as it's right next door.
When it comes to coffee shops, people often think of Shanghai first. But in fact, Guangdong has the highest net increase in coffee shops. Among them, there are over 4500 coffee shops in Guangzhou, ranking second in the country in terms of the number of shops.
According to the "2023 New Tea Beverage Research Report", Dongguan has an average of 7.7 tea beverage stores per 10000 people, ranking first in density in the country.
Fireworks are a characteristic of cities in the Greater Bay Area. Between the fireworks of the human world and the radiance of high-end manufacturing, with the development of the third space, greater chemical reactions can be stimulated for innovation in the future.
In fact, from the "Big City Strong City Index", it can be seen that the competitiveness of the Greater Bay Area cannot be underestimated and is steadily increasing.
Compared to the first edition of the index rankings in 2022, most cities in the Yangtze River Delta have actually declined in ranking, except for Hangzhou and Ningbo: Shanghai has dropped one place, Suzhou has dropped three places, Wuxi has dropped four places, Changzhou has dropped eight places, and Yangzhou has dropped from 16th to 43rd place.
On the other hand, in the Pearl River Delta, Guangzhou rose from 7th to 5th place, and Shenzhen even jumped from 3rd place to top the list.
Shenzhen not only ranks first in the capital productivity index, but also ranks among the top in indicators such as the number of invention patents granted per 10000 people, the number of enterprises with a market value of billions of yuan or more, the level of urban digital development, per capita disposable income, and per capita general public budget expenditure. Professor Chen Xian's evaluation:
Shenzhen has been labeled as China's "First Industrial City," "First Foreign Trade City," and "First Strategic Emerging Industry City." Innovative elements such as talent, capital, and technology converge, forming a mature innovation ecosystem known as the "Rainforest.
On June 30, after the Shenzhen China Channel was opened to traffic, the river crossing channels across the the Pearl River Estuary became more intensive, and it is expected to further "level" the development of the east and west sides, with both wings flying together.
In the past, due to the barrier of the the Pearl River Estuary, the gap between the east and west banks gradually widened. Shenzhen is driving Dongguan to take off, while the economic center of Zhongshan is still traditional industry. In 1980, the GDP of Zhongshan was basically the same as that of Dongguan; In 2000, Zhongshan's GDP was about 42% of Dongguan's; Last year, Zhongshan's GDP was only 33.7% of Dongguan's.
Due to the lack of a horizontal artery like the Shenzhen Zhongshan Passage, many industries in Shenzhen naturally shifted to Dongguan and Huizhou.
You should know that the key step in many famous city clusters in the form of bay areas around the world lies in "stitching". In the San Francisco Bay Area, there are over a dozen cross sea bridges and five rail transit systems. In contrast, with the addition of the Shenzhen China Channel, the Greater Bay Area only has three cross sea channels.
With more and more cross sea channels at the mouth of the the Pearl River, Zhuhai and Zhongshan are likely to become strong cities in the near future.
Recently, the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) released the 2024 Global Top 100 Technology Clusters list, with the "Shenzhen Hong Kong Guangzhou" cluster ranking second globally for five consecutive years, while Beijing and Shanghai Suzhou ranked third and fifth respectively.
As the world's most authoritative technology ranking, WIPO identifies the cities or regions with the most active and concentrated technological inventions and innovation activities globally through PCT patent applications and scientific paper publications.
The report shows that the PCT patent application volume of the "Shenzhen Hong Kong Guangzhou" cluster exceeds 110000, which is equivalent to the total number of clusters such as Beijing, Shanghai Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, and Hangzhou. PCT patent applications mainly come from the contributions of technology companies. In 2023, a total of 14 Chinese companies were shortlisted for the top 50 global PCT patent applications, with companies from Guangdong accounting for half of them.
The scientific and educational resources are not as abundant as those in Beijing and Shanghai
The Greater Bay Area has changed the regional innovation pattern and created its own innovation model through a large number of enterprise innovations.
The joint listing of the "Shenzhen Hong Kong Guangzhou" cluster is also a strong proof that the Greater Bay Area is like a "city". Integrate into one, without distinction between each other.
If the Yangtze River Delta is called 'nuclear fission', the Greater Bay Area is like 'nuclear fusion', with higher density and fusion
There is more room for imagination in chemical reactions.
This is also the development code behind the vigorous expansion of the Yangtze River Delta and the full contraction of the Greater Bay Area.
